External Background Scenarios

Citation: Gustavsson, M., Ekvall, T., Bosello, F. (2013): DYNAMIX Background Scenarios. DYNAMIX Deliverable 4.1, Gothenburg: IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute.

The background scenarios presented in this report describe how the economy, technology, and society in the EU might develop until the year 2030 and 2050 without new policy instruments on resource use and environment beyond what is already implemented. The scenarios are intended to provide a background for the assessments of new policy mixes in the DYNAMIX project. The background scenarios are based on different assumptions regarding the future rate of innovation and different sets of dominating values. A high rate of innovation means that the scenarios include multiple technological breakthroughs in different areas. They can also include many new business models. The technological efficiency increases even when the rate of innovation is low, but only slowly. Materialistic values focus on maximizing production and consumption, while environmentalist values focus on the well-being of all humanity and future generations. We selected these dimensions because they are heavily influenced by factors beyond the control of policy-makers, they are highly uncertain and important for the assessment of policy mixes, and they are important in the public debate.